MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0664
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN OK...SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE/CAP ROCK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 131951Z - 132351Z
 
SUMMARY...NEARLY STATIONARY CELLS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY 2-4" TOTALS
THAT MAY POSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E VIS/RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES BROAD AREA FROM THE
THE EASTERN CAP ROCK THROUGH SW AND W OK THAT HAS DESTABILIZED
WITH WEAK MST CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE.  SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE MID-80S AND TDS IN THE MID 60S HAS SUPPORTED MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES IN THE 2000 J/KG RANGE SUPPORTING STRONG
UPDRAFTS NEARING -60C IN IR AT THIS TIME.  WV LOOP SHOWS
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT HAS REDUCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING
FOR 5-10 KT S-SW CELL MOTION VECTORS.  THOUGH MST AVAILABILITY
ALOFT IS MINOR...CIRA LAYERED TPW PRODUCT DOES INDICATE THE NOSE
OF DEEPER CROSS MEXICAN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE (7-5H) IS PRESENT
SUPPORTING TOTAL PWATS TO 1.3-1.5" ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATE
RAINFALL GENERATION EFFICIENCY.  LOCAL RADARS SUGGEST 2.0+"/HR
RATES WITH LIMITED HAIL CONTAMINATION (PER HCA) WITH SOME FAIRLY
BROAD REFLECTIVITY CORES.  STILL LIMITED MOTIONS AND MODERATE DRY
AIR WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY EARLIER COLD POOL GENERATION SUPPORTING
OUTFLOWS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT (EASTWARD IN OK, WEST AND SWARD IN NW TX).  ALL
CONSIDERED TOTALS OF 2-3" (MAYBE ISOLATED 4") ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND NEAR THE DISCUSSION REGION.  THESE TOTALS IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS
POSE SOME FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS GIVEN THE ZONE OF ACTIVITY IS
WITHIN ALONG A REGIONAL MINIMUM ON THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
PRODUCT. 

HI-RES CAMS SUCH AS THE NSSL-WRF AND RECENT FEW HOURS FROM THE
HRRR ARE GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE OF THIS DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH MOST
GUIDANCE HAS ALREADY UNDERPERFORMED ACROSS N CENTRAL OK...AND
THEREFORE WAS INCLUDED TO THE AREA OF CONCERN AS WELL.    

ATTN...WFO...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36739747 36089717 34759859 33460055 33290167 
            34060211 34340158 34400105 34759989 35589888 
            36319825 36599797 
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