MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0665
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
501 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 132100Z - 140200Z
 
SUMMARY...REDEVELOPMENT/TRAINING ENVIRONMENT IN VICINITY OF
SATURATED SOILS/LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE POSES RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...GOES WV MOSAIC SHOWS A SUBTLE BUT CLEAR COMMA SHAPED
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF NEB AT THIS TIME.  THIS
WAVE IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH THE A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE NEAR MHK WITH THE 850MB CIRCULATION  JUST WEST WITH
AN ELONGATED TROF/CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SE
NEB. BLENDED TPW/CIRA LAYERED TPW PRODUCTS SHOW A BROAD/LOOSELY
DEFINED SW-NE MOISTURE AXIS COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT
BISECTS KS FROM MHK TO I-35/OK BORDER; THE NOSE OF WHICH REACHES
NORTHEAST KS ALLOWING THE POOLING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SUPPORTING TOTAL PWATS OVER 1.75".  GENTLE MST
CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DUE TO THE 850MB TROF AXIS WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE KS/NW MO
ATTM.  RAP FCST SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO EASTWARD FORWARD PROGRESS OF
THE TROF AXIS PROVIDING CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION...WHILE FLOW IN
THE CLOUD BARING LEVEL ABOVE 7H IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR DUE
EASTWARD PROGRESS AND TRAINING ESPECIALLY.   UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 60 TO 90 KT JET ACROSS
UPPER MID-WEST WILL ALSO REMAIN THROUGH THE NEAR FUTURE SUPPORTING
BROAD SCALE ASCENT AS WELL.  

SOUTHEAST OF THE SFC FRONT...INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO CLIMB UNDER
MUCH CLEARER SKIES WITH MLCAPES REACHING 2000 J/KG.  VISIBLE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN LYON COUNTY AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES DUE TO S-SELY BACKING ACROSS SE KS/SW MO AND
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.  STRONGER MORE VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS ALONG THE FRONT PRESENT A THREAT FOR INCREASED RAINFALL
EFFICIENCY WITH RATES OVER 2"/HR LIKELY.  HOWEVER SLIGHTLY
INCREASED FORWARD PROPAGATION AS PRESENTED BY THE RAP AS WELL AS
LESS FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE DEEP FLOW
WILL LIMIT TRAINING/REPEAT CONVECTION...STILL HIGH RATES OVER
SATURATED SOILS STILL POSES A FLASH FLOOD THREAT HERE AS WELL.    

THE 19/20Z HRRR, 19Z RAP AND 12Z GEM-REGIONAL PRESENT ARE MOST IN
LINE WITH THE TRAINING CONVECTION ACROSS NE KS/NW MO WHILE THE
HRRR/RAP/NSSL-WRF PRESENT THE EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT
CONVECTION WELL TOO.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40419400 40359329 39719310 39239416 38169510 
            38369626 39199602 39419623 39739644 40099574 
            40279516