MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0666
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
951 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 140200Z - 140630Z
 
SUMMARY...LESS VIGOROUS AND FOCUSED CONVECTION YET TRAINING
PROFILE AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT REMAIN FOR CONTINUED FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THE E-W FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS N MO PROGRESSING DUE SOUTH WITH OUTFLOW ENHANCEMENT
FROM ELEVATED TRAINING CONVECTION FROM NEMAHA,KS TO DAVIESS,MO
COUNTIES.  WV INDICATES SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
IN CENTRAL IA THOUGH WITH LITTLE TROF PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA...THUS SUPPORTING UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT FOCUSED
ON NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS ASCENDING OVER THE SFC
BOUNDARY AND BACKING SE TO E WITH CONTINUED SUFFICIENT 850-7H MST
CONVERGENCE.  RAP SUGGESTS 850MB BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WITH
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE UPSTREAM IN NE KS FOR CONTINUED
REDEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WEAKER CONVERGENCE/REDUCING
INSTABILITY HAS LEAD TO LESS VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/RAINFALL EFFICIENCY
AS WELL AS FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE TRAINING AXIS.  STILL
RATES OF 1"/HR WITH POTENTIAL UP TO 1.5" FALLING OVER AREAS
CURRENTLY UNDER FF WARNING SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT THROUGH
06-07Z AS THE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST INTO NW MO. 

WV ALSO SHOWS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE DYNAMICS HAVE NOT SHIFTED MUCH
EASTWARD OTHERWISE TOO...LEAVING GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION.  THIS DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH APPROACH OF WEAK LEFT EXIT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM S/W RIDGING (SEEN IN SE KS/N CENT
OK)...SUPPORTING A STATIONARY WEDGE CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IN THE IR
WITH CONVECTION ALONG SOUTH OF THE KC METRO (NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW).  THIS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH 04Z...AND AS SUCH REDUCE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
FLASH FLOOD INDUCING RAINFALL. THOUGH WITH SUB 2" AND 2.5" 1HR/3HR
FFG VALUES...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS THE OVERALL WAVE DEVOLVES.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40019529 39969418 39789362 39639309 39079308 
            38759355 38669433 38619497 38659563 39409540 
            39619593 39989584