MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0668
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN KS/EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEB/NORTHWESTERN MO... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 140650Z - 141105Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REINVIGORATE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN KS. THESE CELLS SHOULD GRADUALLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED AROUND 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN THE PAST 24 HOURS. FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A FRONTAL
ZONE SITUATED SOUTH OF THE MPD AREA WHILE AN 850-MB CONVERGENCE
ZONE STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KS UP ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER.
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO RE-FOCUS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS WITHIN
THE NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY. THESE ADDITIONAL BANDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY EASTWARD DUMPING
MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN KS/PERHAPS
NORTHWESTERN MO. SUCH REGIONS HAVE SEEN THEIR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES DROP GIVEN SATURATED SOILS.

THE RECENT SUITE OF CAMS HAVE NOT DONE A GREAT JOB HANDLING THE
CONVECTION WHICH JUST ERUPTED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE THE
HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR HAVE HINTED AT THIS SCENARIO...NEITHER
APPEAR TO MAINTAIN IT MORE THAN AN HOUR. GIVEN TOPS ARE CONTINUING
TO SLOWLY COOL...NOT POSITIVE THESE HRRR RUNS ARE CORRECT HERE.
WILL FAVOR THE TRENDS IN SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY AND THE FACT MUCH
OF THIS AREA HAS LOWER FFG VALUES.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40579341 40089285 39339316 39029452 38849604 
            38619726 39029788 39659771 40419583