MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0671
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
910 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NW AND NORTH CENT KS...S CENTRAL NEB 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 160109Z - 160509Z
 
SUMMARY...CELL MERGERS AND UPSCALE GROWTH TO PROMOTE INCREASED
RAINFALL OVER AREAS WITH WET SOIL CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...WV LOOP SHOWS STRONG VORT CENTER EJECTING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS OUT OF WY WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SUPPORTING A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN E CO.  VWP NETWORK SHOWS STEADILY
STRENGTHENING AND BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW PROMOTING INCREASED MST
FLUX ACROSS NW AND N CENT KS AND CENTRAL NEB TOWARD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE LOW IN E CO...S OF GLD..SE OF MCK TO NEAR
LXN/EAR.  ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN MORE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS/SEVERE
WX - HAIL GENERATION (SEE MCD1696 FROM SPC FOR FURTHER DETAILS)
HOWEVER RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE SHOW BROADER ASCENT WITH
THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX INTO DECATUR/NORTON COUNTIES; AREAS WHICH WERE
HEAVILY AFFECTED BY FLOODING RAINS WITHIN THE LAST WEEK SATURATING
SOIL CONDITIONS.   

SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
W NEB TO REINFORCE/STRENGTHEN COLD FRONT AND INCREASE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE STRENGTHENING WITH THE
TIGHTENING ISOTACH GRADIENT ON THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
SSE-NNE ORIENTED POLAR JET ACROSS THE REGION BY 06Z...PROVIDING
INCREASED ASCENT AS WELL.  MITIGATING FACTOR THOUGH SHOULD BE
EVENTUAL FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE THE COMPLEX TOWARD THE NE
(WITH THE WAVE) AND SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE...REDUCING THE
COUPLING/COMPOUNDING AFFECTS AS WELL AS LIMITING RAINFALL DURATION
FOR PROLONGED OR SIGNIFICANT TOTALS.  EXPECTATION IS FOR 2-3"
TOTALS MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO S CENTRAL NEB WITH
ISOLATED 4" NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41139809 41049759 40659749 40319756 39619843 
            39009972 39100088 39510114 40030064 40589962 
            41059849