MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0680...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
913 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 200109Z - 200509Z
 
SUMMARY...RECENT UPWARD TRENDS ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
PAINT A POTENTIALLY OMINOUS SITUATION FOR EASTERN NC.  HOURLY RAIN
RATES TO 2.5", WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 5", COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIA IS
APPROACHING THE OUTER BANKS OF NC AS A FRONTAL ZONE EDGES THROUGH
EASTERN NC.  RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 25 KT SURFACE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASINGLY CONVECTIVE CYCLONE, WITH
VAD WIND PROFILES BRIEFLY RISING TO 30 KTS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF NC.  CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING IN THIS AREA, AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE FRONT MOVING INTO JULIA'S CENTER MIGHT BE
SPINNING UP ITS CIRCULATION, WHICH HAS BEEN PORTRAYED ON PAST RAP
RUNS.  THIS WINDS ARE IMPORTING MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG (NO CIN
RESIDES IN THE REGION) PERPENDICULARLY INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE.  AN
UPPER CIRCULATION IS ATTEMPTING TO CUT OFF IN SC, WHICH IS
ENHANCING UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER JULIA'S REMAINS.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE JUST OVER 2" IN THE AREA PER GPS VALUES.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CIN TO FORM NEAR THE FRONT, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT CONVECTION COULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED OVER THE FRONT WITH
TIME TONIGHT.  ALSO, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CENTRAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH JULIA COULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT DURING
THE USUAL DIURNAL MAXIMUM AS IT NEARS THE OUTER BANKS.  HOURLY
RAIN RATES TO 2.5" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 5" ARE POSSIBLE. 
HOWEVER, MLCAPE HAS BEEN ON A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  USED A FOUR HOUR WINDOW HERE DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36607589 36597581 35957550 35407540 35157556 
            34387615 34467658 35187665 36167628 
a