Graphic for MPD #0695
 
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0695
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
414 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK....EASTERN KS...SOUTHEAST NE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 242010Z - 250000Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION FORMING IN A STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW COULD
RESULT IN TRAINING...LEADING TO A FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. 

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS HAVE SHOWN A SLOW INCREASE IN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM WEST CENTRAL OK INTO SOUTHEAST NE AND
SOUTHWEST IA. THE CONVECTIVE STRENGTH HAS BEEN TRENDING
UPWARD...AS THE IR LOOP SHOWED SLOWLY COOLING TOPS...WITH CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR -65 CELSIUS. 

THE CONVECTION IS FORMING IN AN AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE...AS LOW LEVEL CIN CONTINUES TO ERODE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE HOVERING NEAR 2.00 INCHES... WHICH IS BETWEEN TWO AND
THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. THE CONVECTIVE HAS
DEVELOPED INTO LINES...WHERE THE CELLS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST (DUE
TO THE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW)...WHILE THE LINES THEMSELVES
ARE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. 

HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES HAVE BEEN SEEN
ON THE KOAX AND KTWX RADARS...BUT MESONET  OBSERVATIONS HAVE
INDICATED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES CLOSER TO AN INCH. 

THE CONSENSUS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT
THE CONVECTIVE LINES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST (BASED ON
CORFIDI VECTORS FROM THE LATEST RAP)...BUT CELLS IN THE LINES WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST. THE CELL MOVEMENT SUGGESTS THAT THE
THREAT FOR TRAINING WILL INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
18Z HRRR INDICATED LOCAL 2-4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SCATTERED FROM
SOUTHEAST NE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OK. 

FOR THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE REALIZED...TRAINING WOULD NEED TO
OCCUR ALONG THE LINES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTION COULD
BECOME MORE OUTFLOW DOMINATED AS IT REACHES BETTER INSTABILITY
OVER WESTERN MO/SOUTHEAST KS...WHICH WOULD LOWER RAINFALL RATES.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE THREAT FOR TRAINING IN A HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIRMASS..FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...OUN...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41419522 40869479 38039597 35949695 34819816 
            34509902 35309967 36429971 37499898 39059804 
            40919663 41209642 41389603 


Last Updated: 414 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016