MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0697
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
744 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 250000Z - 250400Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION TRAINING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS COULD RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THAT THE CONVECTION IN A
STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD... AS
THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS IN THE LINES MOVE NORTHEAST. THE CONVECTION
WAS ANCHORED IN A 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AXIS...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TOPPING OUT NEAR 2.00 INCHES (BASED ON THE BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT...AS WELL AS THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS). 

THE IR LOOP SHOWED CONTINUED COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS...REACHING
-70 DEGREES CELSIUS. WITHIN THE AREA OF CLOUD TOP COOLING...THE
KTLX RADAR INDICATED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2.50 INCHES AFTER
A CELL MERGER OVER EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY. OTHER STRIPES OF
CONVECTION WERE PRODUCING HOURLY RATES NEAR 1.50 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OK INTO EASTERN KS. FURTHER NORTH...THE
CONVECTIVE LINES OVER EASTERN KS APPEARED TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
BECOMING MORE OUTFLOW DOMINATED...BASED ON THE RADAR PRESENTATION.

THE DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS (BASED ON THE MOST RECENT RAP MODEL RUN).
WITH THE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THE LINES
OF CONVECTIVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. 

THE LATEST HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOWED LOCAL 2-4 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OCCURS... STRETCHING FROM
NORTHEAST KS IN CENTRAL OK. HOWEVER...THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THESES AREAS COULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL
FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO A DEGREE. LATEST HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
SHOWED LOCAL 2-4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS WOULD
OCCUR ONLY AREAS WHERE TRAINING BANDS PERSIST.

WHILE THE OVERALL THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE WANING...THE
TRAINING SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38519722 38379682 37509657 36599706 35229796 
            34379859 34549922 36659864 38259782 38299777