MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0698...CORRECTION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1025 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 250200Z - 250700Z
 
CORRECTION FOR TYPO IN LAST PARAGRAPH

SUMMARY...TRAINING CONVECTION IN A HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT COULD
RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS CENTRAL TX...AND THE CONVECTION IS TRAINING AS A RESULT ON
MID LEVEL UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. THE CONVECTION REMAIN ROOTED IN AN
AXIS OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AND UPSTREAM... THE 00Z KDRT
SOUNDING SHOWED AN SBCAPE OF 3000 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH CONTINUE TO FEED THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...WITH IR CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR -72 CELSIUS
ACROSS NORTH TX. THE KDYX RADAR SHOWED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF
1.50 TO NEARLY 2.00 INCHES STRETCHED FROM THROCKMORTON TO NOLAN
COUNTIES. 

THE LATEST RAP SHOWED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES REMAINING
ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH 06Z OR SO. INDIVIDUAL CELLS IN THE
CONVECTIVE LINES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE MID
LEVEL UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...WHILE THE LINES THEMSELVES MOVE SLOWLY
EAST (AS INDICATED BY THE CORFIDI VECTORS. THE LATEST HRRR AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOWED LOCAL 2-4 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TX. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE LATEST HRRR MAY BE UNDERPLAYING THE CURRENT EXTENT
OF THE CONVECTION...SO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR WHERE
TRAINING PERSISTS. 

FURTHER SOUTH...A MCV TRACKING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO IS PROVIDING
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT FOR CONVECTION FIRING ON THE MEXICAN RIDE OF
THE RIO GRANDE...AND THE IR CLOUD TEMPERATURE CONTINUE TO COOL.
THE KDYX SHOWED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1.50 INCHES...AND THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL 2-4 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THESE AMOUNTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...AS MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION COULD END UP STAYING ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIVER.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34209805 33569785 32139869 30059989 29210073 
            30220220 32000132 34079939