MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0713
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
802 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN TO CENTRAL NC... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 291202Z - 291502Z
 
SUMMARY...THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
REGENERATE...THUS EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR ANOTHER 2-3
HOURS. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES SHOULD EASILY APPROACH 2 INCHES
WITHIN THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS GIVEN A HISTORY OF SUCH AMOUNTS.

DISCUSSION...WITHIN A BROAD WARM SECTOR EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS...A BAND OF NORTH/SOUTH CONVECTION REMAINS A FOCUS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY
PRODUCED FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS IN MULTIPLE COUNTIES OVER NC: 
MOORE/HOKE/RICHMOND/HARNETT/CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. PER MESONET
DATA...HOURLY RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE REACHED AS HIGH AS 3.19 INCHES
WHICH SHOWS THE EFFICIENCY OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE BEST FOCUS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE ACTIVE REGION OF CONVECTION. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SUFFICIENT INFLUX OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RICH
AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE
A FEW MORE HOURS. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL-HRRR HAVE
REPEATEDLY DISSIPATED THIS CONVECTION BUT HAVE NOT VERIFIED WELL
GIVEN THE ONGOING RADAR/SATELLITE SIGNATURE. AS SUCH...EXPECT THIS
SYSTEM TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS LEAVING A
REMNANT THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35717829 35657786 35327770 34707798 33867876 
            34067922 34927903