MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0714
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1105 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN TO CENTRAL NC... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 291505Z - 291835Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER SOUTHWARD TO THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SC
COASTLINE. THE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE
EASTWARD WHICH HAS HELPED FOCUS HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE ZONE. FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON. 

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE INDICATED THE
CONVECTION FOCUSING OVER EASTERN NC HAS PERSISTED MUCH LONGER THAN
MOST HIGH-RESOLUTION CAMS SUGGESTED. IN PARTICULAR...VISIBLE
SATELLITE DATA DEPICTED AN ENHANCED BAND OF CB EXTENDING FROM
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SC NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NC/VA
BORDER. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...PER THE 12Z MHX
RAOB...REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN FREEZING LEVELS
EXTENDING UP TO NEAR 14 KFT WHILE THE FLOW REMAINS
QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL. THE GENERAL MOTION OF STORMS HAS BEEN SLOWLY
TOWARD THE EAST WHILE REGENERATION CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH
HOURLY RATES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER RECENT HISTORY AND
DUAL-POL RADAR ESTIMATES. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD AWAY FROM WHERE 8 TO 10 INCHES FELL DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. THUS...WILL GO WITH THE 'POSSIBLE' DESIGNATION REGARDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

AS WAS THE CASE IN MPD #0713...THE PAST FEW CYCLES OF THE
HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL-HRRR HAVE BEEN TOO ABRUPT IN WEAKENING/DECAYING
THE ONGOING COMPLEX. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE FOCUSED ON OBSERVATIONAL
DATA TRENDS WHICH SUGGESTS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH
THE EARLY TO POSSIBLY MID-AFTERNOON.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36527746 36387696 35647703 35017721 34007788 
            33537862 33857902 34687888 35777836