MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0717
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
855 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 050054Z - 050515Z
 
SUMMARY...THERE IS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE THERE IS A COMBINATION OF LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

DISCUSSION...AT 00Z CONVECTION WAS BECOMING ORGANIZED IN A NORTH
TO SOUTH ORIENTED BAND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. 
ALOFT..THERE WAS A SPEED MAX WHICH WAS RESULTING IN HIGHLY
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  WINDS AT 850 MB WERE TAPPING MOISTURE OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN AN INCH PER THE 00Z SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE RAP AND THE HRRR WERE FAIRLY MODEST...ON
THE ORDER OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...BUT SOME PLACES OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS RECEIVED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EARLIER TODAY.  AS A RESULT...SOME FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR OVER
THE MPD AREA BEFORE RAINFALL RATES DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING
ONCE THE LOW LEVEL STABILIZES.  

BANN

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OAX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41639679 40019462 38209472 36839573 36619802 
            39409662