MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0718
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL OK...SOUTHEAST/EAST KS...WESTERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 060600Z - 061200Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING CONVECTIVE CONVERAGE AND EFFICIENCY WITH SLOW
MOTIONS/ BACKBUILDING MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS BY
EARLY MORNING

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WELL DEFINED FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW/DRY LINE INTERSECTION NEAR
DEWEY/MAJOR COUNTY IN OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD TO WLD TO EMP AND
THROUGH THE KC METRO BEFORE ORIENTING MORE E-W ACROSS N MO INTO W
IL.  SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TDS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE
PRESENT WITH BROAD SELY SFC FLOW VEERING TO 30-40 KT SSWLY 850 LLJ
SUPPORTING A BROAD WAA REGIME AND AMPLE MST FLUX FOR ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM OK TO E KS/W MO.  00Z SOUNDINGS
AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE DRY AIR ABOVE 8H
HOWEVER...GENERAL MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MST CONVERGENCE.  AT PRESENT
GOES-IR/RADAR MOSAIC SHOW TWO AREAS OF FOCUSED ASCENT ACROSS N
CENTRAL OK AS WELL AS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS E KS/KC METRO AREA. 
GIVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MILD AT THIS TIME...CELLS ARE A BIT MORE
DISCRETE WITH SUPERCELL/SEVERE NATURE TO THEM PARTICULARLY WITH
THE NORTHERN CLUSTER.

GOES-WV LOOP SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE ADVANCING TOWARD W CO AS
WELL AS A BUCKLING UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE (INCREASED RIGHT
ENTRANCE ASCENT ACROSS W KS).  THIS SUPPORTS SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND EVENTUAL LEAD TO UPSCALE
GROWTH OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS GIVEN STRONGER WAA AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHILE ALSO REDUCING PROPAGATION VECTORS BELOW 5
KTS (INCLUDING SOME INDICATIONS FOR BACKBUILDING PSBL) ACROSS N
CENTRAL OK/SE KS AND CENTRAL MO BY 07Z.

CELL MOTIONS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EXPANDING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD SUPPORT SOME TRAINING/CELL MERGERS WITH  WITH RAIN
RATES INCREASING FROM 1-1.5"/HR TO 1.5-2"/HR BY 12Z GIVEN THE
MOISTENING LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HI-RES CAMS PARTICULARLY THE
NSSL-WRF AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HRRR-EXP SUPPORT THIS
EVOLUTION WITH 6HR RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4" NEARING OR EXCEEDING
FFG VALUES MAINLY ACROSS SE KS WHERE FFG IS LOWEST.  SSEO
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES EVEN REACH TO 50% EXCEEDANCE OF FFG BY
12Z PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS THREAT BY DAYBREAK...
THEREFORE FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   39929322 39799254 39599243 38979278 38209395 
            36929509 36269619 35979689 35999796 36729839 
            37229790 37939707 39109556 39759436