MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0719
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
728 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NEAR THE OK/KS/MO BORDER JUNCTION 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 061128Z - 061513Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL 15Z ACROSS NORTHEAST OK, SOUTHEAST KS, AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHWEST MO.  WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2", FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE REGION IS COMPLEX, WITH
A COUPLE BOUNDARIES PRESENT.  THE MORE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY IS
REINFORCED BY THE CURRENT MATURE WEDGE-SHAPED CONVECTIVE AREA
ACROSS KS/OK, AND THE BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD. 
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE REGION IS 35-50 KTS PER VAD WIND
PROFILES, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.8" EXIST PER RAP
ANALYSES AND GPS DATA.  MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXIST IN THE
WARM SECTOR UPSTREAM.  THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS ARE TAKING ON A
MORE EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION OF 30-35 KTS, IN LINE WITH A COMPROMISE
OF THE FORWARD PROPAGATION VECTORS AND THE 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS
PATTERN.

WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL BACK IN NM AND A JET STREAK IN
WESTERN KS, THERE IS SUPPORT FOR THE IDEA OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.  HOWEVER, THE DEGREE
OF LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE 40-50 KTS OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT A PROGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE LINE
COULD MATERIALIZE AS WELL, WHICH MIGHT BE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY -- SIGNALS ARE MIXED.  HOURLY RAIN RATES OF
2" ARE EXPECTED WHERE CELLS TRAIN, AND THE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES
LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-4", WHICH WOULD EXCEED LOCAL FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE.  THIS COULD LEAD TO CONTINUED FLASH FLOODING FOR ANOTHER
3-4 HOURS, SO LONG AS THE AREA DOESN'T EVOLVE INTO A PROGRESSIVE
CONVECTIVE LINE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   37669412 37489346 37089380 36699437 36289528 
            36099674 36349738 37059730 37409637