MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0720
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
539 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NWRN TX...INTO W-CNTRL OK...NRN OK AND SERN
KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 062138Z - 070330Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE
WITH TRAINING FROM SW TO NE POSING A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
FROM SWRN OK INTO SERN KS. THERE IS IMMEDIATE CONCERN FROM THE
CNTRL OK/KS BORDER INTO SERN KS WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL EARLIER THIS
MORNING. 

DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM
A LOW WEST OF SLN...SWWD THROUGH WRN OK AND INTO THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED ONGOING CONVECTION SE OF
ICT...JUST N OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...TRAINING FROM SW TO NE WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW BETWEEN THE LFC AND EL AS SEEN IN THE 18Z
SOUNDING FROM LMN. THE 18Z LMN SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED RELATIVELY
STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING 2500-3500 MUCAPE AREA
WIDE...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY INCREASINGLY ELEVATED ACROSS SERN KS
TO THE NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
DRYLINE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED JUST EAST OF CDS
ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH TRAINING/REGENERATION NOTED FROM SW TO
NE. THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2
IN/HR.

GIVEN THE CURRENT INSTABILITY AND KINEMATIC PROFILES ACROSS OK
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...ADDITIONAL TRAINING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
TWO ONGOING REGIONS OF CONVECTION...WITH EVENTUAL SEWD PROPAGATION
INTO HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE DRYLINE HAS LIKELY STOPPED
MIXING EAST WITH SOME WWD MOVEMENT POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR TERM
BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONAL
AREAS OF CONVECTION WITH 1-2 IN/HR RAINFALL RATES WILL DEVELOP AS
THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE CNTRL OK/KS BORDER AROUND 00Z...DWINDLING
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NRN REGIONS WHILE POSSIBLY LINGERING
THE THREAT NEAR THE RED RIVER.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...AMA...EAX...ICT...LUB...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38449514 38329453 37759434 36519528 35299706 
            33769959 33740031 33990056 34460042 34859988 
            35879897 37109786 37599712 38129584