MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0721
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL FL COAST 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 070100Z - 070700Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CNTRL
TO NRN EAST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH 06Z. RAINFALL RATES
OF 3-4 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE 00Z NHC POSITION OF HURRICANE MATTHEW PLACED THE
CENTER AROUND 75 MI EAST OF WEST PALM BEACH...MOVING NW AT 11 KT.
THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING AND LATEST BLENDED TPW SHOWED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGED FROM 2.50 TO 2.75 INCHES FROM THE SRN TO CNTRL
FL EAST COAST OF FL. KMIA RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAVE
SHOWN THE NWWD PROGRESSION OF A DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH MATTHEW ACROSS WRN GRAND BAHAMA. WHILE THE 70-80
MI DIAMETER OUTER EYEWALL HAS LOST SOME SYMMETRY OVER THE PAST
HOUR...THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF MATTHEW WILL TAKE THE WRN EDGE OF
THE OUTER EYEWALL TO THE CNTRL FL COAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED NEARLY PARALLEL MOVEMENT OF MATTHEW TO THE ERN
FL COAST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTH TO
SOUTH MOVING HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NRN PALM
BEACH...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER AND SRN BREVARD
COUNTIES WITH RAINFALL RATES PEAKING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 IN/HR. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES...6 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD REACH 6 INCHES THROUGH 06Z.

FARTHER NORTH...AN INTENSE OUTER BAND FROM MATTHEW HAD STREAMED IN
FROM ENE TO WSW BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z...15-20 MI NORTH OF MCO. LOCAL
GAUGE REPORTS INDICATED RAINFALL RATES OF 3+ IN/HR OVER SERN
VOLUSIA COUNTY ENDING 00Z. AS ELY FLOW INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF
MATTHEW THROUGH 06Z...ADDITIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH 3-4 IN/HR RAINFALL RATES WHERE TRAINING MAXIMIZES. 

THESE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
WITH SPECIAL CONCERN GIVEN TO URBAN LOCATIONS.

OTTO 

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   30148116 29608072 28908041 28148003 27617975 
            27147971 26687975 26598008 27088054 28148100 
            28708160 29338172 30058170 
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