MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0722
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1111 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN NORTH TX...EXT SOUTHEAST OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 070310Z - 070615Z
 
SUMMARY...SHORT-TERM LOW END FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR RED RIVER. 

DISCUSSION...WV LOOP INDICATES MAIN FORCING/SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED
THE REGION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MIDWEST.  SFC
ANALYSIS/RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS  FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
SURGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS W OK ATTM APPROACHING
ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION.  
EXPECTATION OF CLUSTERS TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...YET VWP NETWORK AND RAP ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE
MODERATE INFLOW THAT WILL UPGLIDE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION FOR SOME
EXTRA TIME.  ASCENT/UL EVACUATION REMAINS SUPPORTED BY SOME
MODERATE DIVERGENCE AT THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET AXIS WHILE
DEEP MEAN FLOW SUPPORTS WEST TO EAST TRACKING OF THE CELLS
ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER REGION TO SUPPORT SOME CONTINUED
TRAINING OR REPEATING OVER AREAS ALREADY AFFECTED THIS EVENING.
WITH SLOW MOTIONS AND SATURATED PROFILES FROM CURRENT
ACTIVITY...CELLS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT AS SUPPORTED BY HCA HEAVY
RAINFALL SIGNATURES FROM LOCAL WSR-88D.  THIS COULD POSE A LOW END
SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF RAIN
POSSIBLE.   

AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAXIMIZES THE FOCUS OF NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THAT
LOCATION WHERE SOIL CONDITIONS ARE MUCH DRIER AND FFG VALUES
SUPPORT ANY RAINFALL FROM THE NEW DEVELOPMENT. 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34689716 33839689 33429733 33379861 33490031 
            34020052 34530016 34639885