MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0723
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST COAST OF FL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 070640Z - 071245Z
 
SUMMARY...HURRICANE MATTHEW...RATES UP TO 3"/HR PSBL LIMITED TO
NEAR COASTAL REGIONS. 

DISCUSSION...GOES-EAST IR APPEARANCE TO HURRICANE MATTHEW APPEARS
TO BE DETERIORATING SLIGHTLY WITH WARMING TOPS IN GENERAL THOUGH
THE OUTER EYEWALL SHOWS A BAND OF COLD (SUB -75C) TOPS NEARING ST.
LUCIE/INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES.  THIS IS RESULTANT FROM THE WEAKENING
OF THE INNER CORE EYEWALL WITH THE ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE.  THIS INCREASES THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NEW EYEWALL WHICH
HAS RECENTLY BEGUN TO DISPLAY INCREASED RAIN RATES PER THE MLB
WSR-88D EVEN PRIOR TO DIURNAL MAXIMA IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR 09Z.  SO EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR FURTHER ENHANCEMENT.  GIVEN
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WITH TPWS NEAR 3" ...EXPECTATION OF 3"
HOURLY TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE THOUGH LIKELY LIMITED TOWARD THE
FAVORED FRONT RIGHT QUADRANT...GIVEN CURRENT TRACK SHOULD AFFECT
CAPE CANAVERAL AND POSSIBLY COASTAL REGIONS OF S VOLUSIA COUNTY BY
12Z. ON THE FRONT LEFT QUADRANT WITH REDUCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND REDUCED INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...TRANSPORT OF
WEAKENING SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MODE...THOUGH
STILL CAPABLE OF 1-2" HOURLY TOTALS.  THIS SHOULD LIMIT EXTREME
TOTALS YET 5-6" OVER THE NEXT 6HRS REMAINS PLAUSIBLE ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS OF INDIAN RIVER TO BREVARD COUNTY.  THIS SHOULD POSE
FLOODING CONCERNS PARTICULARLY GIVEN MASS PILING/SURGE LIMITING
OUTFLOW OF RIVERS IN THE VICINITY.  

FURTHER NORTH PERSISTENT BAND OF HVY RAIN WITH TOTALS IN THE 4-6"
ACROSS E LAKE/NW ORANGE/SEMINOLE AND S VOLUSIA HAS LEFT THE AREA
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL FRESH WATER FLOODING FROM 09-12Z AS
THE 60 MILE WIDE BROAD SHIELD OF MODERATE RAINFALL WITH RATES UP
TO 1-2"/HR ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE MAIN EYEWALL.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   30668130 30098124 29288096 28628047 27888034 
            27258010 27048041 27538089 28398132 28648176 
            29488182 30628183