MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0724
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
842 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN FL PENINSULA...EXTREME SERN GA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 071241Z - 071900Z
 
SUMMARY...HURRICANE MATTHEW...RATES UP TO 3 IN/HR POSSIBLE CLOSE
TO THE COAST.

DISCUSSION...AS OF THE 12Z NHC ADVISORY THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
MATTHEW REMAINED OFFSHORE, ABOUT 45 MILES ESE OF DAYTONA BEACH
FLORIDA. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR ARE
CONFINED TO THE EYEWALL WHICH IS BRUSHING THE COASTLINE IN BREVARD
AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
FAIRLY STEADY STATE, WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS REMAINING IN THE
-75 TO -80 DEG C RANGE. RAINFALL RATES ARE LIGHTER OUTSIDE THE
EYEWALL IN THE SPIRAL BANDS, WITH HOURLY RATES IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL, WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
COASTLINE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF MATTHEW.

MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NNW OVER THE
NEXT SIX HOURS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHEST RAINFALL RATES
IN THE EYEWALL, ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST SHOULD KEEP THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE HIGHEST RAINFALL RATES CONFINED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE
COAST. WHILE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS THE
OUTLINED AREA, THE DURATION OF RAINFALL  COULD SERVE TO GRADUALLY
LOWER FFG VALUES, AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EXCEEDANCE. FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

RYAN

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   30938139 30468136 29868119 29368091 28908068 
            28488067 28378089 28378121 28768166 29258205 
            30208216 30858188