MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0726
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA COAST THROUGH COASTAL SC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 080100Z - 080700Z
 
SUMMARY...HURRICANE MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
4-8 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS...OVER THE
NEXT 6 HOURS FROM THE SC/GA BORDER TO THE CNTRL SC COAST.

DISCUSSION...AT 00Z...NHC PLACED THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW
ROUGHLY 105 MILES SSE OF SAV. A QUASI-STATIONARY COASTAL FRONT WAS
ANALYZED PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND GA AT 00Z AS
WELL. INFRARED SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO HAVE
SHOWN A RAPID COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF
MATTHEW...ROUGHLY 80 MILES INLAND FROM THE COAST ACROSS THE
S-CNTRL GA/SC BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...RECENT RADAR ESTIMATED AND
GAUGE VERIFIED RAINFALL RATES HAVE INCREASED FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 IN/HR
TO 1.0 TO 1.5 IN/HR BETWEEN SAV AND HXD. A LOCAL OBSERVATION IN
BLUFFTON SC REPORTED 1.49 IN/HR AS OF 00Z DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY
OVER THIS REGION.

WHILE CAPE DROPS OFF QUICKLY INLAND FROM THE COAST...THE 00Z
SOUNDING FROM CHS RECORDED OVER 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE...HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE 23Z RAP AND 23Z HRRR WOULD INDICATE. IT APPEARS THE
RECENT INCREASE IN RAINFALL RATES HAS BEEN CONNECTED WITH GREATER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE QUASI-STATIONARY COASTAL BOUNDARY AS
MATTHEW HAS MOVED NORTH. THE FORECAST TRACK VIA THE 21Z NHC
ADVISORY FOR MATTHEW TAKES THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE BY
06Z...WHILE STILL REMAINING OFFSHORE. GIVEN THIS
MOVEMENT...RAINFALL RATES OF GENERALLY 1-2 IN/HR...LOCALLY
HIGHER...CAN BE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NWD FROM NEAR SAV TO BETWEEN
CHS AND MYR THROUGH 07Z AS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NORTH. ADDITIONAL 6 HR RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-8 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FLASH FLOODING.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   34027904 33697837 32338031 31818073 31378116 
            31838168 33208093