MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0743
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
722 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 172322Z - 180402Z
 
SUMMARY...AN EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF A STRONG WARM FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.  HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  ISOLATED
HIGHER RATES ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST IS LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION COURTESY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MODEST LEVELS OF INSTABILITY.  A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 TO 60
KNOTS DEPICTED ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE IS ADVECTING 1.4
TO 1.7 PWS NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE.  DEEP UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM
800MB TO 300MB WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTION.  

THE MESOSCALE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR LOCAL
AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THROUGH 04Z TUESDAY.  THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 4Z, AND CAPE VALUES WILL ALSO DECREASE BY
THIS TIME.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DLH...GRB...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   47058795 46908682 46808574 46768452 46328397 
            45958413 45838473 45858570 45678633 45498696 
            45228769 45118851 45098958 45219201 45909205 
            46489097 47018932 
!