MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0760
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
758 AM EDT FRI NOV 04 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NM 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 041155Z - 041755Z
 
SUMMARY...NARROW BANDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN NM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. 2-3 INCH TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST
CORES.

DISCUSSION...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 2-3 HOURS
HAS SHOWED 2 AXES OF SOUTH TO NORTH ORIENTED SHALLOW CONVECTION
LOCATED IN SWRN NM. RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION
IS ROOTED JUST BELOW 700 MB...AND EXTENDS UP THROUGH ABOUT 300 MB.
KEPZ DUAL POL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST RAINFALL RATES HAVE
BEEN CONFINED TO NERN GRANT COUNTY WITH 1-2 IN/HR INDICATED
BETWEEN 10-11Z. WHILE THESE VALUES MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...THE
STATIONARY NATURE OF THESE BANDS IS CONCERNING. A CLOSED 700-500
MB CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER S-CNTRL AZ WITH A SLOW NEWD DRIFT
SEEN OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER...+3 TO +4 STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES ABOVE NORMAL WITH RECENT GPS SITES INDICATING VALUES
JUST OVER 1 INCH BETWEEN TCC AND LRU. 

A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE...AT OR ABOUT 500 J/KG...EXTENDED FROM
THE UPPER RIO GRANDE INTO SWRN NM ACCORDING TO THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE...WITH SLY FLOW FEEDING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT INTO THE BLACK RANGE. GIVEN THE
SLOW FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 6+ HOURS...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP IS FORECAST. WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL LONGEVITY OF BANDS IS
UNCERTAIN...THE POTENTIAL FOR NARROW AXES OF HEAVY RAIN TO SET UP
AND TRAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IS HIGH WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE. THE AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER
THAN 0.75 INCHES SHOULD CONFINE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO SWRN NEW
MEXICO. 

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34920779 34790737 34400680 33460666 32560676 
            31480732 31600849 32720879 34180882 34870834