MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0761
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 PM EDT FRI NOV 04 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN AZ INTO SWRN NM 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 041814Z - 050000Z
 
SUMMARY...A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN AZ INTO
WRN NM INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2
IN/HR WHERE TRAINING AXES OF HEAVY RAIN SET UP.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF
A POTENT MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SERN ARIZONA OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS...WITH AN EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NNE AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. GPS SITES SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 0.8 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE FROM NEAR
PHX TO LRU COINCIDENT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY OF ROUGHLY 500 J/KG
MUCAPE VIA THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...GOES HD WINDS SUPPORTED RAP ANALYSES OF A 100+ KT JET
STREAK NOTED WEST OF THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA. 

GREATER SOLAR INSOLATION VIA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS FAR SERN
AZ/SWRN NM WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HIGHER ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AS
THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES NEWD...THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE
GRADIENT...OR 700 MB TROUGH AXIS...WILL EDGE EWD ACROSS SWRN NM AS
UPPER DIVERGENCE APPROACHES THE REGION DUE TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK. 

CONTINUED TRAINING AXES OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ERN AZ INTO WRN NM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING FROM LOCALIZED RAIN RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. IN
ADDITION...THE 12Z HI-RES MODEL SUITE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS SWRN NM WITHIN AN EXPECTED
INSTABILITY MAX IN THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME. WHILE THESE CELLS MAY BE
MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING WITH INCREASED DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR...THEY MAY PASS OVER SOME OF THE SAME LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY
HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35580722 34840605 34020575 32150574 31420687 
            31210815 31100873 31350913 31770941 31920946 
            32311000 33131055 33681048 34140989 35100824