MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0763
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
822 PM EDT FRI NOV 04 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NM...WESTERN TX PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 050020Z - 050620Z
 
SUMMARY...RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5"/HR WITH SOME CELL MERGERS AND
TRACKING ACROSS AREAS AFFECTED EARLIER BY HVY RAINFALL MAY
CONTINUE TO POSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERN.

DISCUSSION...DEEP UPPER LOW HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ELONGATED WITH A
LOBE OF VORTICITY/DPVA EXTENDING SEWARD INTO SW MEXICO/N CHIHUAHUA
AT THIS TIME PROVIDING DEEP LAYERED ASCENT TO MAINTAIN ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS S NM INTO FAR WESTERN  TEXAS WEST PANHANDLE. WV
LOOP ALSO INDICATES LEFT EXIT REGION OF 90KT SUBTROPICAL JET THAT
IS ALSO SLIGHTLY ANTICYLONICALLY CURVED PROVIDING ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL DIVERENCE AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO.  LOWER LEVEL INFLOW FROM 30 KT EASTERLY 850MB LLJ/RETURN
FLOW PROVIDES SUPPORTIVE MST FLUX WITH TPWS NEAR 1.0".  THIS FLOW
BECOMES HIGHLY CONVERGENT ALONG NW-SE 850-7H SWLY FLOW OFF THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU AS WELL. COINSIDENT INSTABILITY CHANNEL ASSOCITED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EARLIER SURFACE HEATING KEEPS
MLCAPES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AS FAR NORTH AS S SIERRA COUNTY
CURRENTLY WITH MUCAPES MAINTAINING THIS LEVEL THROUGH 04-05Z PER
23Z RAP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE (AS IS SEEN NEAR THE
GRANT/LUNA COUNTY LINE PER VISIBLE IMAGERY) FOR SOME REPEAT CELLS.
 THIS ASCENT/MOISTURE KEEPS THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH CAPABILITY
OF RATES FROM 1-1.5"/HR POSSIBLE.  

AS MAIN SHORTWAVE LOBE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD CELLS THAT ARE MERGING
ACROSS N LUNA/SIERRA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS AREAS
AFFECTED BY HEAVIER RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY POSING A CONTINUED
THREAT OF FF THERE EVEN THOUGH CELLS SHOULD BE TRENDING DOWNWARD
WITH REDUCTION OF INSTABILITY...STILL CAPABLE OF RATES OVER
.5"/HR. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...NEAR EL PASO...INFLUENCE OF THE WAVE
SHOULD REDUCE AND SUPPORT SLOWING CELL MOTIONS AND FAVORABLE N-S
ORIENTATION OF THE TROF FOR SOME POSSIBLE TRAINING AS SUGGESTED BY
THE NAM CONEST/NSSL WRF. 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34550604 34120555 33250510 32530502 31490519 
            31070549 31250585 31530608 31670640 31730660 
            31830690 31910761 32440788 32990805 33670794 
            34000780 34260723