MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0766
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
707 AM EST SUN NOV 06 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTL TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 061206Z - 061606Z
 
SUMMARY...A FAIRLY ORGANIZED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING.  LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO 2 TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR MAY OCCUR..INCREASING THREAT OF
LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES.

DISCUSSION...A QUASI LINEAR NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACRS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS
WITHIN BROADLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HI PLAINS.  SEVERAL
WEAK MESO LOW CIRCULATIONS WERE NOTED WITHIN THE BAND OF
CONVECTION WHICH WERE PROVIDING LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO
PRECIPITATION RATES AS MUCH AS 2 TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR BASED ON
RECENT RADAR ESTIMATES. THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF MODEST MLCAPE GRADIENT OF 500-1000
J/KG AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO CAPTURE THE CONVECTIVE DETAILS HERE
WITH MOST OF THE 00Z HI RES GUIDANCE DOING A POOR JOB WITH HEAVIER
RAIN PLACEMENT COMPARED TO RADAR.  RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
HAVE FINALLY CAUGHT ONTO ONGOING TRENDS...BUT MAY STILL BE TAKING
HEAVIER RAIN TOO FAR NORTH.  FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...FEEL
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY TO POSSIBLE
EXCESSIVE RAINS WILL REMAIN A THREAT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MORE
ACTIVE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND AS IT MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF DEEPER PW GRADIENT OF 1.5 INCHES.  

SULLIVAN

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32260094 32139934 31029860 30339881 30610174 
            31530195