MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0778
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
625 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SW TN...NRN AND CNTL MS...NW AL...NE LA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
 
VALID 292324Z - 300320Z
 
SUMMARY...
INCREASING CONVECTION NORTH OF A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY TO
POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES
INTO TN.

DISCUSSION...
22Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED MULTI-CELLED TSTMS CONTINUING TO EXPAND
AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDRY
EXTENDING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTL LA INTO CNTL MS AS COMBINATION OF
INCREASING MLCAPES AND MSTR FLUX IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM S/WV
DIGGING SEWD ACRS THE SRN HI PLAINS HELPS FUEL THE DVLPMENT. WHILE
STORMS HAVE INITIALLY BEEN MORE DISCRETE..THEY WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION INTO ORGANIZED BANDED FEATURES AS MSTR CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN AND WARM FRONT BECOMES MORE ALIGNED WITH THE MID/UPR FLOW. 
PWS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES FROM ALONG THE LA
COAST NWD INTO NE MS/SRN TN WITH 40 TO 50 KTS 85H SSWLY FLOW. 
THIS ALONG WITH RT ENTRANCE REGION OF VERY STG 150KT UPPER JET
WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN THE STRONGER TSTMS
THAT DVLP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. RECENT HRRR RUNS..WHILE
SOMEWHAT SLOW TO DEVELOP CONVECTION..SUGGEST ONE ORGANIZED BAND OF
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAIN WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS NRN MS INTO TN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES DVLPG ALONG THE FRONT ENHANCES
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MSTR FLUX INTO THAT REGION.  CELL MOTION IS
RATHER QUICK TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS IN THE
SHORT TERM..BUT SOME QUICK SHORT TERM AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
COULD APPROACH SOME OF THE LOWER FFG VALUES ACROSS THE AREA.
SULLIVAN

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35518813 35368750 34818752 34388765 33748839 
            32489019 32209095 32429163 33469100 34468945