MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0789
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1046 PM EST MON DEC 05 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHERN FL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 060345Z - 060945Z
 
SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND EXTENDING OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIA.  AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
FOR SOME AREAS.  LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO DEPICT WIDESPREAD HEAVY
CONVECTION FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EASTWARD TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT IS ADVECTING IMPRESSIVE 2.0-2.3 INCH PWS
AND 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS IS INDICATING A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER
OF 50 KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT, AND THIS WILL BE LIFTED
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND PRODUCE AN ENHANCED CORRIDOR OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 330Z
INDICATED ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG CONVECTION APPROACHING APALACHEE
BAY AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  OVERSHOOTING TOPS AND AN
EXPANDING ANVIL REGION ARE APPARENT.

THE LATEST OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENT HRRR MODELS ARE BOTH
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH 9Z
TUESDAY MORNING.  THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS NEAR THE
GREATER TALLAHASSEE AREA AND TOWARDS VALDOSTA.  BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS, THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER, THE AREA OF ENHANCED
RAINFALL DEPICTED BY THE HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTH CAROLINA IS PROBABLY TOO FAR NORTH.   

ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS
PRESENT, THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL HELP TO MITIGATE THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT THERE.  AREAS FARTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THAT HAVE RECEIVED A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL ALREADY FROM
CONVECTION EARLIER MONDAY AFTERNOON HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
WITHIN THE MPD AREA FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   32818097 32647983 30918133 29988126 29778180 
            29728376 29488484 29728590 30428672 31078633 
            31478495 31838350 
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