MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0038
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1134 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN AL/GA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 221632Z - 222202Z
 
SUMMARY...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER INCREASINGLY SATURATING
GROUND WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN AL/GA.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY HAS RESULTED IN VERY STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS MOISTURE IS
THEN INTERSECTING AN OUTFLOW REINFORCED WARM FRONT STRETCHING WEST
TO EAST ALONG/NEAR THE FL AND AL/GA BORDERS. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
THE CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BOUNDARY IS STRONGER THAN PROGGED IN
THE MODELS...WHICH IS LIKELY RESULTING IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THAN FORECAST. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS RESULTING IN SOME BACKBUILDING INTO THE CONVECTIVE
LINE...WITH CORFIDI VECTORS PARALLEL TO THE EAST/WEST FRONT
ENCHAINING TRAINING.

DO EXPECT THAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTH AS THE SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD. THUS IN GENERAL WOULD EXPECT THE TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO BE FOR THE CONVECTION TO TEND TO BE A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEGUN TO CATCH
ON TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT FEEL IT IS STILL LIKELY TOO
QUICK IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION NORTHWARD. A SLOWER
PROGRESSION APPEARS LIKELY...WITH SOME CONTINUED BACKBUILDING AS
WELL. ALSO A COLD FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE IS LIKELY TO PROGRESS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS THE
COMBINATION OF TRAINING/BACKBUILDING CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...COMBINED WITH THIS AFTERNOONS COLD FRONTAL
CONVECTION...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN AN INCREASED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE DAY. THE HIGHEST THREAT IS LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AL/GA WHERE AS MUCH AS 3-5" OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

CHENARD

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CHS...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   32978426 32718229 32698213 32238137 31728092 
            31618091 30598151 30488259 30418413 30438584 
            30558700 30718734 30888749 31618767 32408720