MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0040
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
945 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 230245Z - 230730Z
 
SUMMARY...A FEW MORE HOURS OF .5-.75"/HR RATES ALONG THE TERRAIN
OF SW CA EVEN AS THE MOISTURE STREAM IS THINNING.

DISCUSSION...GOES-WV/IR AND RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE THE BULK OF
STRONGEST ASCENT AND MOISTURE FLUX HAS SHIFTED THROUGH ORANGE
COUNTY AND IS SHIFTING THROUGH THE SANTA ROSA AND LAGUNA MOUNTAIN
RANGES.  CURRENTLY THE CENTER OF THE TPW PLUME IS FOCUSED ON SAN
DIEGO WITH 50 KTS OF SWLY FLOW SLOWLY REDUCING TO 40KTS BY 06Z AND
CONTINUING TO BACK MORE WESTERLY.  LOCAL MESONET CONTINUES TO SHOW
ONE HOUR TOTALS IN THE .75" RANGE WITHIN THE SANTA ANA RANGE
TOWARD PALOMAR MTN WITH .25-.3" ALONG THE COAST IN THE LOWER
LEVELS.  THIS SUPPORTS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN AXIS IS THROUGH
AN ADDITIONAL HOUR OR SO WILL ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1.5-2.5"
KEEPING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES.  THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE BULK OF HI-RES CAM
GUIDANCE AS NOTED BY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SSEO AND HREF ENSEMBLE
MEANS. 
 
GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...

LAT...LON   34371568 34011511 33391543 32821532 32591537 
            32531642 32531720 32521717 33151750 33531787 
            33841781 34111713 34291669