MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0041
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
442 PM EST FRI FEB 03 2017
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 032141Z - 040141Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD NEAR A DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER LOW.

DISCUSSION...STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL PROVIDE THE
ASCENT FOR ONGOING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION. 

CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE SPC-WRF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING  ORIENTATION OF SEVERAL BANDS OF TRAINING CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. HREF PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BROAD SWATH OF
0.75-1.0" RAIN RATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY IN AREAS OF TRAINING. HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
REPORTS IN EXCESS OF 1" OF RAINFALL (1.36" IN ONE HOUR) AT A HADS
SITE EAST OF MARIPOSA. EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS TO LOCALLY APPROACH
1-2" THROUGH 02Z ACROSS THE MPD AREA. WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD ISSUES...RAINFALL RATES AND
TOTALS OF THIS MAGNITUDE DO BEGIN TO APPROACH AND LOCALLY EXCEED
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. THUS SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD ISSUES MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONTEFUSCO

ATTN...WFO...HNX...REV...STO...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...

LAT...LON   39122040 38741963 38551942 38191916 37861903 
            37491882 36971845 36311844 36251882 36481937 
            36852003 37152035 37702069 38172081 38752070