MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0057
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
523 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN AND N-CNTRL TX INTO SWRN AND
CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 192222Z - 200422Z

SUMMARY...TRAINING AND BACK BUILDING OF CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO A
FEW FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FROM PORTIONS OF NWRN TX INTO PORTIONS
OF SWRN/CNTRL OK. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEYOND
00Z...BUT SOME LOCALIZED ISSUES MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

DISCUSSION...22Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACED AN OCCLUDED/COLD
FRONT SLOWLY EDGING EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EWD FROM THE TRIPLE POINT...ABOUT 20-40 MI SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER. THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM MAF AND DRT SHOWED A WARM NOSE CENTERED NEAR 850 MB
ABOVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH HAS
CONTINUED TO ADVANCE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS
SIGNIFICANT INCREASED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS SEEN IN THE CIRA
LAYERED PW PRODUCT...AND THE WARM NOSE HAS ERODED ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS W-CNTRL TX AND PORTIONS OF
NWRN TX AS SEEN ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY.

RECENT HI-RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SHOWS INCREASING COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST AND GREATER UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 40-5O KT RANGE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS TX INTO OK. WHILE THE STRONGER
850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...SHORTER TERM TRAINING MAY BE
OBSERVED FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST AS CELLS INCREASE IN NUMBER WITHIN
THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME. PORTIONS OF THE MPD THREAT AREA
HAVE RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS WHICH
HAS LOWERED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...CURRENTLY SHOWING 2-3 INCHES IN
3 HR. 3 HOUR RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE
WITHIN THE MPD THREAT AREA THROUGH 05Z.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36279775 36079698 34729699 33379736 31919810
            31649913 32009975 32839960 33889938 35849883