MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0068
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1024 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IND...SOUTHERN MI...NORTHEAST
IL...NORHTWEST OH

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 010325Z - 010730Z

SUMMARY...ISENTROPIC REDEVELOPMENT MAY TRAIN ACROSS AREA OF
CONCERNS POSING POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...EARLIER CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER CHICAGOLAND
VICINITY HAS GROWN UPSCALE TO A MODEST MCS WITH A FEW MCV DENOTED
IN THE KGRR RADAR.  ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK THE TRAILING MESO
COLD FRONT HAS ORIENTED NEARLY E-W FROM SOUTH BEND BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST PRESSURE FALLS OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
QUAD CITIES.  THE INITIAL RAINFALL CORRIDOR FROM S BUREAU COUNTY
IL TO LAKE/PORTER COUNTIES IN IND KICKED A COLD POOL SOUTH THAT
HAS RECENTLY RETURNED NORTHWARD AND IS FOCUSING SFC MST
CONVERGENCE (NEARLY 25KTS FROM THE SOUTH) PROVIDING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT FOR AN AREA OF NEW CONVECTION.  AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD NOT WAVER TOO MUCH AS OMEGA FIELDS
FROM RECENT RAP RUNS SUGGEST TRACKING OUT OF NE IL ACROSS SOUTHERN
LAKE MI/NW IND INTO S MI...LEADING TO A FAVORED TRAINING CORRIDOR
WHERE RATES OF 1.25-1.5"/HR MAY COMPOUND INTO TOTALS OF 2-3"
POSSIBLE LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   42338466 42338360 41728337 41348493 41298787
            41398888 41828898 42108743