MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0070
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 AM EST WED MAR 01 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST OH...NORTHERN WV...EXT SOUTHWEST PA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 010844Z - 011344Z

SUMMARY...TWO ROUNDS OF WEAKENING CONVECTION TRACK ACROSS LOWERED
FFG VALUES POSING SOME RISK OF FLASH FLOODING

DISCUSSION...WEAKENING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS THE NORTHEAST NOSE OF
FAIRLY STRONG 50 KT 850 WAA IS BEING MAINTAINED BY SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ALOFT AS RAP MUCAPES REMAIN IN THE 500-750 J/KG RANGE.
 STILL DUALPOL RADAR ESTIMATES OF 1.5"/HR HAVE BEEN TRENDING
DOWNWARD TOWARD 1.0"/HR AS REDUCTION OF INFLOW AND MST FLUX
RELATIVE TO THE CORE OF THE LLJ AS TPWS ARE BARELY 1.0".  ALSO
WITH COLD POOL GENERATION... FORWARD PROPAGATION IS HELPING TO
REDUCE TOTALS AS WELL.  YET RECENT BACKYARD WX STATIONS AND
MESONET OBSERVATIONS STILL SUPPORT 1.25-1.5" TOTALS BETWEEN
CIRCLEVILLE AND LANCASTER OH.  EVEN IF TOTALS CONTINUE THE
DOWNWARD TREND...AN EXPECTATION OF .5-1.0"/HR IS LIKELY WHICH
WOULD EXCEED THE EXTREMELY LOW FFG VALUES IN THE REGION OF SE OH
INTO N WEST VIRGINIA.

AROUND 11-12Z...COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN KY CURRENTLY WILL ALSO TRACK
TOWARD HUNTINGTON WV AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LEADING TO A
SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE WEAK ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE
DISCUSSION AREA.   STILL WITHOUT BEST FORCING/MST FLUX OR
INSTABILITY FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
HIGHLY PRONE AREAS.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39888041 39737970 39347977 39078012 38608114
            38328233 38818267 39348252 39778195 39858129