MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0085
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EDT WED MAR 29 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 290600Z - 290930Z

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM A REPEATING
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED AND
PROGRESSIVE BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUING TO ADVANCE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TX WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STILL
SITUATED ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALONG WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
MEANWHILE...A SEPARATE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTHEAST OF
WICHITA FALLS TX REPRESENTS BASICALLY THE INTERSECTION OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER ALONG WITH A WELL-DEFINED
NORTHEASTWARD EXTENDING BAND OF CONVECTION THAT EXTENDS NOW INTO
NORTHEAST OK.

THE PORTION OF THE LINE SOUTHEAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY HAS BEEN
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT MANY AREAS FROM SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OK HAVE ALREADY
SEEN LOCALLY SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. THE AXIS IS LIFTING INTO
NORTHEAST OK...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONGER UPPER FORCING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 TO 60 KTS PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS...WHICH IS
HELPING TO TRANSPORT AS MUCH AS 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. PWATS
MEANWHILE ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...AND HAS BEEN
CONTRIBUTING TO RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES/HR.

THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FALLING ON AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN HEAVY TOTALS.
THE SET-UP FOR REPEATING/TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS WITH AS MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OR
RAIN. BY LATER IN THE NIGHT TOWARD DAWN...THE HIRES GUIDANCE
AGREES IN A DOWNWARD TICK IN ORGANIZATION AND LOWER RAINFALL RATES.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   37009501 36569477 35849534 35049636 34319745
            34039816 34189851 34689856 35259798 35909696
            36459635 36969576