MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0092
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
158 PM EDT SUN APR 02 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX REGION

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 021734Z - 022104Z

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX
REGION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...STRONG MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FLUX CONTINUE IN
VICINITY A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OR SECONDARY FRONTAL
STRUCTURE THAT COINCIDES WITH THE REGION OF STRONGEST 3-HR
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. THESE OBSERVATIONS
CONFIRM RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OTHER HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE SPC-WRF AND NSSL-WRF THAT SHOW DEEP AND
VIGOROUS CONVECTION  EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD IN VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE TRACKING LOW. THIS PROJECTION IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GOES-R MID-LEVEL WATER IMAGERY SHOWING
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.

THROUGH 21Z, EXPECT HOURLY RATES TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES IN THE
STRONGEST CORES, PARTICULARLY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT MAY REPRESENT A QUASI-STEADY BOUNDARY PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX, CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING 2 OR
MORE HOURS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE AREA JUST NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT, WHERE WINDS ARE VEERING WITH HEIGHT ALSO SUPPORTS TRAINING.

JAMES

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34519438 33609159 32499147 31169281 30479487
            30559556 31529561 32929582