MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0105
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
208 PM EDT THU APR 06 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...UPSTATE NEW YORK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 061807Z - 070007Z

SUMMARY...DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS

DISCUSSION...AREA OF INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR
TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MPD AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN LOW
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...AS LOW AS 0.50 INCH IN THREE HOURS
IN SOME PLACES WITH THE BROADER REGION'S FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES AROUND 1.00 INCH. MORNING HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWED THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH QPF OVER A THREE HOUR
PERIOD...BUT THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN PLACEMENT. RADAR
TRENDS HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT AN AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF
SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA OF LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. LOW LEVEL
INFLOW OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS A TONGUE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE MPD AREA.

KREKELER

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   42957630 42897477 42307400 40977355 40377429
            40447555 41117693 42067741