MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0115
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 PM EDT THU APR 13 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX...WESTERN/CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 131845Z - 132345Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...RESULTING
IN THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST TX AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST
INTO WEST-CENTRAL OK. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST ACROSS THIS
REGION WITH PRECIPTITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES...AND
INSTABLILITY HAS BEEN INCREASING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS
WITH MUCAPE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
AROUND 1000 J/KG. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SLIGHT BACKBUILDING OF THE
STORMS INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS
REGION OF TX JUST SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE...WHERE LOCAL RAINFALL OF
JUST OVER AN INCH HAS ALREADY FALLEN.

THE CAPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE THREAT AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE THAT
RAINFALL WILL INCREASE. IN FACT...THE 12Z ARW/NMMB AND THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INCREASES A BIT MORE IN
ORGANIZATION AND TENDS TO LIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. LOCAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN ROUGHLY CHILDRESS AND WICHITA FALLS...BUT
THE THREAT ALSO EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL OK THIS
AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHORT-TERM RAINFALL RATES REACHING AS HIGH AS 2
INCHES/HOUR...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

ORRISON/MCDONNAL

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   36529954 36389822 34979795 33919836 33689953
            33740024 34420034 35770016