MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0155
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
310 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MO...SOUTH -CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 290705Z - 291305Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME REPEATING CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAY
CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING
FARTHER NORTH UP ACROSS CENTRAL MO OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CONTINUE GAIN SOME LATITUDE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE ALSO BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FOCUSED
FARTHER EAST OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL IL. THIS WILL BE
FACILITATED BY THE PERSISTENCE OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
OVER A WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD.

THE HIRES GUIDANCE LED BY THE 04Z HRRRX RUN AND 00Z NSSL-WRF
SUPPORT AS MUCH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS AREAS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MO THROUGH 12Z...BUT THERE WILL BE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME CELL-TRAINING WHICH MAY ENHANCE TOTALS A BIT
MORE. THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN FARTHER
SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN MO AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST AR WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND THE BETTER INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SOME
RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39868831 39798785 39438775 39068896 38598999
            38239029 38079166 37749298 37509384 37279429
            37319454 37659452 38329386 39059217 39439098
            39619015 39808911