MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0156
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
352 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF THE TX PANHANDLE...WESTERN/CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 290751Z - 291330Z

SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING AND REPEATING THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES WILL FOSTER FLASH FLOODING THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE AND STRETCHING EAST INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK.
EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 10.3 MICRON/IR IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS
OVERSHOOTING TOPS INDICATIVE OF VERY INTENSE UPDRAFTS/FORCING AND
THUS SUGGESTS VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES GIVEN THE PWAT
ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS ABOUT 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES.

AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND THIS IS HELPING TO BACK THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WHILE GENERATING A VERY STRONG WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT AS A WELL-DEFINED AND COUPLED JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION. MEANWHILE...A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS POOLED UP ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND MUCH
OF CENTRAL/EASTERN TX WHERE A DEEPER LAYER OF SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT CONTINUES. ALL OF THIS IS SURGING
NORTH UP OVER A WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER.

THE STRONGER DYNAMICAL FORCING EJECTING GRADUALLY OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE VERY FAVORABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PROFILES FOR STRONG AND INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 2 INCHES/HR. THE 00Z ARW/NSSL-WRF RUNS SUGGEST AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 12Z...WITH POSSIBLY SOME
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING AFTER 12Z...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
OF CENTRAL OK. THESE AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME FLASH
FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   36999796 36779710 35929676 35319698 35019753
            34829832 34399937 34240009 34170073 34210124
            34410146 35040157 35850099 36340029 36679951
            36889887