MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0160
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1120 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...SERN KS...FAR NWRN AR...WRN/SRN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 291519Z - 292100Z

SUMMARY...A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF TRAINING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE MAJOR...LIFE THREATENING...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN OK INTO NWRN AR AND CNTRL MO. ADDITIONAL
MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 6-8 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z.

DISCUSSION...EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 10.3 MICRON IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A
WWD EXPANSION OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS THROUGH SWRN MO OVER THE PAST 2
HOURS AS ANOTHER CLUSTER OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS ADVANCED TO THE EAST
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF OK. ENTLN LIGHTNING DATA AT 15Z IDENTIFIED
AN AXIS OF CG AND INTER/TNTRA-CLOUD FLASHES ALIGNING FROM NEAR MLC
TO JUST NORTH OF SGF. THIS AXIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF WHAT
SHOULD BECOME A SLOW MOVING SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 20-21Z.

AS A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NM OVER THE
NEXT 3-6 HOURS...LOW-MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE HEIGHT FALLS ADVANCE INTO WEST
TEXAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS WILL BE A PIVOT POINT...FOCUSING
JUST AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING TO NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN SERN OK. LOW PRESSURE AT 15Z LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT IN
HAYES COUNTY...NERN OK...IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NNE AS THE
WARM FRONT TO ITS EAST ALIGNS MORE SW TO NE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SW TO NE ALIGNMENT OF THE ENTIRE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALIGN
PERFECTLY WITH MEAN LAYER WINDS OF 50-60 KT TO ALLOW TRAINING OF
HEAVY RAIN CORES FROM SW TO NE. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET TROUGH 21Z WILL ALSO ACT TO INCREASE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OVER ERN OK/WRN MO/FAR NWRN AR AS WELL. GIVEN ANTECEDENT RAINFALL
HAS SATURATED SOILS IN MANY LOCATIONS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
RUN OFF RAPIDLY...LIKELY CAUSING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39449314 39099218 37959185 37079182 36649231
            35929408 35119489 34639600 35059660 36499580
            37589522 39129445