MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0166
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
923 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST AR...SOUTHERN MO...EASTERN OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 300125Z - 300530Z

SUMMARY...DEVELOPING CLUSTER IN W AR TO TRACK ACROSS AREAS WITH
ONGOING FLOODING. ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF RAIN OVER NEXT FEW HOURS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS AGAIN. 

DISCUSSION...STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ARE ADVANCING ACROSS TX AND W OK
ATTM SPURRING A CONSOLIDATION OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS E OK AND
IN DOING SO LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED BUT MCS COMPLEXES
FURTHER SOUTH HAVE RESTRICTED LONGER MST FETCH LIMITING RECHARGE
OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING.   AS SUCH A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN S MO IN
THE SHORT TERM.  

STILL BROAD DIFFLUENCE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS THE APPROACH OF
DEVELOPING COMPLEX AT THE NOSE OF WEAK PRESSURE TROF OR SURFACE
WARM FRONT IN NE TX.  00Z LZK SOUNDING INDICATES THERE REMAINS A
POOL OF INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN THIS COMPLEX AS IT RUNS NORTH IN
WESTERN AR.  AS SUCH IT WILL EVENTUALLY TRAVERSE AREAS AFFECTED
EARLIER AND WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY SPUR FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE AR/MO
BORDER WHICH IS LIKELY TO SET FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS AGAIN
GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LOW FFG IN THE AREA.  AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" RAIN
IS EXPECTED OVER NW AR INTO S MO THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
WINDOW/INFLOW REGIME FOR UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AR LEADING TO POSSIBLE FF THERE AS WELL.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   37399253 37369152 36669138 36269158 35929233
            35029280 34449313 34569414 35349496 36429526
            37049439