MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0180
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
530 AM EDT WED MAY 03 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHEAST OK...SOUTHERN MO...FAR
NORTHWEST AR

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 030930Z - 031530Z

SUMMARY...AN ELONGATED AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN IN EXPERIMENTAL
GOES-16 WV IMAGERY AMPLIFYING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND THIS CONTINUES TO DRIVE A STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN OUT AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK. ALREADY AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF STRONGER ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IS SEEN REPEATING OVER THE
SAME AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST OK AND TO A LESSER EXTENT NOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO. GENERALLY A MODERATE TO HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IS SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

STRENGTHENING HEIGHT FALLS AND THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF STRONGER
WARM ADVECTION WITH THE AID OF A SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET OF 50 KTS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW HEAVIER RAIN AND CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION TO
LIFT OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH TIME...AND A NOSE OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCH
PWATS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT UP ACROSS EASTERN OK OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WHICH WILL TEND TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL RATES
FURTHER...AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED NOSE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES RISING TO AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS PER THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS EXPECTED TO
BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLY REACHING TO NEAR 3 INCHES. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVERALL
SHOULD TEND TO FOCUS OVER NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO WHERE
THERE WILL TEND TO BE AN AXIS OF REPEATING CONVECTIVE CELL
ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS...THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   38519143 38149022 37088978 36579132 36229339
            36019483 35879617 36089691 36369726 36939731
            37599653 38059496 38379324