MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0183
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT WED MAY 03 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AR

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 031800Z - 032200Z

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORMING AND MOVING OVER AREAS OF
SOIL SATURATED BY EARLIER HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN RENEWED FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE KLZK RADAR INDICATED ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST AR AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND NEARBY NORTH TX. THE LATEST
EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 IR 10.4 MICRON IMAGES SHOWED COOLING TOPS
WITH THE DEVELOPING STORMS.
THE CONVECTION IS FORMING IN AN AXIS OF 1.60 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR...WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH A STRIPE OF 500-1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE POKING INTO SOUTHWEST AR.

THE CONVECTION IS TRACKING OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER RAIN
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE 17Z HRRR SOIL
SATURATION PRODUCT SHOWED THAT SATURATION IS OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AR...WHERE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK.

THE BEST LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK
IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 22Z...AND THE LIFT COULD HELP EXPAND AND
ORGANIZE THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST AR. INSTABILITY COULD END
UP BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD
THREAT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A FAIRLY SOLID HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
SIGNAL SHOWING AN ADDITIONAL 2.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION THROUGH 22Z. THIS MUCH RAINFALL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
FRONT.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   35049232 34519123 33929157 33119323 33129403
            33309443 33399451 34239444 34849374