MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0196
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1154 AM EDT TUE MAY 09 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL & NORTHERN NM

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 091554Z - 091954Z

SUMMARY...DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM
COULD EXHIBIT SOME TRAINING AND CELL MERGERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.  WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5", AND LOCAL AMOUNTS OF
2-4", FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NM COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING HAVE HELPED BREAK UP A STRATUS DECK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NM AND ALLOWED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM WITHIN
INCREASINGLY CUMULIFORM CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NM.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE INCREASING, WITH
.5-.9" BEING REPORTED VIA GPS.  THIS HAS BEEN TRANSLATING TO 1-2"
AN HOUR RAIN RATES PER FEEDBACK FROM THE ALBUQUERQUE NM FORECAST
OFFICE.  UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF 20 KTS HAS BEEN SEEN IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VAD WIND PROFILES.  BULK SHEAR OF 30-50
KTS IS HELPING TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION.  MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG
EXIST IN THIS REGION PER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSES.

INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
SLOWLY INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  ALTHOUGH THEY ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING SIGNS OF CELL TRAINING, STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
MOVE MORE NORTHEAST AT 25-30 KTS AS THEY DEVELOP FURTHER AND
FORWARD PROPAGATE IN A FEW HOURS.  THE BULK SHEAR AVAILABLE
SUPPORTS MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
HEAVY RAINFALL.  LESS ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS COULD COLLIDE WITH
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WHICH COULD LEAD TO CELL MERGERS.  THE
HRRR, RAP, AND 12Z NAM CONEST ADVERTISE LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-4"
RANGE.  WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES TO 1.5" EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER AN AREA WITH MODEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37920549 37430422 35950406 34390471 34080501
            33940515 33640542 33610578 34360625 35540741
            36950746 37600653