MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0197
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
407 PM EDT TUE MAY 09 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN CO...CENTRAL/NORTHERN NM

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 092005Z - 100100Z

SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME REPEATING OF CELL
ACTIVITY WILL FOSTER ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH SOME FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED N/S AXIS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED FROM
CENTRAL NM NEAR THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN
MOUNTAINS...NORTHWARD UP ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN NM/SOUTHERN CO AND THEN OVER SOME OF THE OPEN PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST CO. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE GENERALLY CONTINUED TO
COOL OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BECOMES SUSTAINED AND ENHANCED A BIT FURTHER BY THE PRESENCE OF AN
UNSTABLE AND RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AMIDST A HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT UPPER AIR ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN AZ.

SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW UP ACROSS EASTERN NM AND INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM CONTINUES TO ALSO FOSTER A
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT TO THE FORCING ENVIRONMENT
WHILE ALSO ASSISTING IN THE TRANSPORT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO OVER
1500 J/KG LOCALLY WITH THE AID OF STRONG DIABATIC HEATING VIA
SOLAR INSOLATION. A STATIONARY FRONT UP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
NM IS ALSO FACILITATING SOME ADDITIONAL SURFACE CONVERGENCE FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR
RELATIVELY SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE CELLS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES TO 1.5 INCHES/HR AND ALSO A TENDENCY FOR CELLS REPEATING
OVER THE SAME AREA NEAR SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CENTRAL NM
NORTH INTO AT LEAST THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE OF NORTHERN
NM/SOUTHERN CO. THE 12Z ARW/NMMB SOLUTIONS AND ALSO CONSECUTIVE
RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS THROUGH 00Z. GRADUALLY THERE
MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO ALLOW
CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO BOW SOMEWHAT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND MORE
INTO THE OPEN HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NM AND SOUTHEAST CO...BUT
SOME OF THESE AREAS ALSO SAW HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SO...GIVEN THE SET-UP...THE ADDITIONAL RAINS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WILL FAVOR SOME RUNOFF CONCERNS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...EPZ...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   39270413 38790309 37160314 35740369 34550419
            33380484 33150533 33390575 34120582 34920624
            35460643 36240635 37140588 38200567 38870533