MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0198
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
917 PM EDT TUE MAY 09 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM...WESTERN TX...FAR WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE...EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 100115Z - 100600Z

SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH A FEW CELL-MERGERS. GIVEN THE INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES...SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A SSW/NNE AXIS OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO IMPACT AREAS OF EASTERN NM AND NOW EDGING ACROSS THE BORDER
INTO WESTERN TX. THE VERY STRONG CONVECTION IS BEING FACILITATED
BY THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHERN AZ AND EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NM. THE ENERGY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 110+ KT 250 MB JET MAX AND IS INTERACTING WITH A
N/S AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000 TO 1500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO ADVECT A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS. IN FACT THE LATEST VWP DATA SHOWS THE NOSE OF
A 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVANCING UP THROUGH WEST TX AND INTO FAR
EASTERN NM WHERE THE CURRENT AXIS OF STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS
EXISTS.

RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HRRRX SUGGESTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION
PERSISTING AND EXPANDING A BIT MORE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A GENERAL TREND OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
TEXAS AND THE OK PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SOME COLD
POOL GENERATION BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS POSSIBLY
OVER 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS EXPECTED
WHERE CELL-MERGERS OCCUR AND ALSO OVERSHOOTING TOPS. SOME FLASH
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...LUB...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37570247 37240188 36350153 35270158 33640213
            32430286 32080372 32400446 33540452 34780408
            35980375 37310309