MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0200
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
123 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO & NORTHEAST NM

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 101721Z - 102321Z

SUMMARY...CUMULI ARE BEGINNING TO BUILD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL CO AND NEAR A BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST CO.  STORMS WITH
HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.25" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2" COULD LEAD
TO ISSUES OVER SATURATED SOILS.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS BEEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN CO THIS MORNING, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL SHORTLY.  AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW ACROSS NM IS AIDING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 0.5-0.7" PER THE 12Z DNR SOUNDING
AND 13Z GPS DATA.  CIN IS SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS THE REGION AND
MLCAPES HAVE RECENTLY BUILT UP TO 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CO NEAR THE SAGGING FRONT PER SPC MESOANALYSES.

THE EXPECTATION IS FOR CIN TO ERODE FURTHER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND TRY TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE.  MLCAPES SHOULD BUILD AN ADDITIONAL 500-1000 J/KG DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.  SOME UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO AID
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CO ROCKIES. 
BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS CLOSE TO 30 KTS, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE DESPITE A RELATIVE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW.  THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND COLLAPSES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, IMPLYING THAT CELL MOTIONS WOULD BE SLOW NEAR THE STALLING
BOUNDARY AND NEARBY TOPOGRAPHY.  THE THICKNESS PATTERN SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION SHOULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE NORTHEAST WITH TIME, LIKELY
AT 10-15 KTS.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.25", WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF 2", COULD OVERWHELM SATURATED SOILS FROM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
OF RAINFALL.  KEPT THE CATEGORY AS POSSIBLE SINCE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   39180519 38920470 38290414 39050322 38660229
            37830271 36960318 36440376 35790454 35290516
            35220554 35830599 36350604 37020555 37770547
            38400570 39110553