MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0203
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
622 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN CO...FAR WESTERN KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 102220Z - 110420Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE RUNOFF CONCERNS AND PROMOTE FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...DIURNAL HEATING HAS DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SUFFICIENTLY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CO FOR AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FOCUS NEAR AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF A STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED FROM SOUTHEAST CO
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KS. FORCING IS BEING AIDED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE
EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF A SURFACE LOW INTO SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER SOUTHERN CO. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A LARGER SCALE
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS OVER THE REGION TO THE NORTH OF THE
CLOSED MID LEVEL CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL NM PROVIDING DEEPER LAYER
ASCENT.

A STRONG CONSENSUS EXISTS FROM THE 12Z ARW/NMMB/NSSL-WRF SOLUTIONS
ALONG WITH CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR FOR AN AXIS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EVENING
OVER SOUTHERN CO AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KS.
SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ALREADY EXIST GIVEN THE CURRENT
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT AS AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN CO NEAR SOME OF THE FAVORED
EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. RUNOFF
PROBLEMS AND AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN THE WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...AND THERE WILL BE CONCERN TOO NEAR ANY
BURN SCAR AREAS FOR MUDSLIDES AND/OR DEBRIS FLOWS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   39510189 39490125 39080101 38530130 37970188
            37200303 37000413 37020571 37530625 38010637
            38490606 38690465 38990376 39340283