MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0205
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
917 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NORTHEAST OK...EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KS...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MO...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 110115Z - 110715Z

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MOIST ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS WILL
ELEVATE THE THREAT FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EJECTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS AND FAR NORTHEAST OK AND INTO
SOUTHWEST MO MAY TEND TO ALSO DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER DOWNWIND ALONG
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST IL WHERE THE TAIL
END OF ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED.
THE BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WHICH IS HELPING TO POOL DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD
HELP FACILITATE A RELATIVELY BROAD SW/NE AXIS OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE LATE-EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE MPD THREAT AREA.

PWATS OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES AND UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL
PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THAT MAY REACH UP TO 2 INCHES/HR
WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES. THE LAST COUPLE RUNS
OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN TENDING TO CONCENTRATE CONVECTION A BIT MORE
WITH SOME REPEATING CONVECTIVE CELL POTENTIAL ACROSS AREAS CENTRAL
MO OVER THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN TO BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY THE
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ARE QUITE
MOIST...AND THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ELEVATE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39698897 39648785 39208768 38638817 38118958
            37449156 37009305 36629455 36879520 37479539
            38119485 38559388 39019253 39259157 39439059