MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0206
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1240 AM EDT THU MAY 11 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TO CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 110439Z - 110900Z

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
WRN KANSAS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING INTO
PORTIONS OF CNTRL KS OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING HEAVY RAIN OVER WRN KS AS OF 04Z...WITH A
PERSISTENT MESOLOW NOTED ALONG THE WRN SHERIDAN/GOVE COUNTY BORDER
CONTAINING RADAR ESTIMATED RAIN RATES NEAR 3 IN/HR...HAS RESULTED
IN NUMEROUS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND REPORTS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ALONG A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH KS WITH RADAR
ESTIMATED RAIN RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. INSTABILITY HAS WANED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BENEATH WIDELY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO FUEL
HEAVY RAIN WITH 500-1500 J/KG ESTIMATED MUCAPE. THIS WILL POSE AN
IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

AS AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NEWD OVER
THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...A FURTHER REDUCTION IN INSTABILITY ACROSS
NWRN KS SHOULD REDUCE RAINFALL INTENSITY THOUGH 20-35 KT OF ELY
850 MB UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE MODERATE RAINFALL AT TIMES.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSING UPPER LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH REMAINING INSTABILITY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO POSE A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT INTO PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE
NOT WIDESPREAD...A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PICK UP
ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES BY 09Z WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW
LOCATIONS.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...ICT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39400040 39070014 38800010 38559992 38479969
            38429930 38389854 38359755 38259715 37979690
            37539697 37259884 37280075 37390122 37890146
            38600134 39150110 39390071